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editorials:european_politicians_produce_plans_for_a_show_network_for_transactions_to_evade_dollar_sanctions_on_trade_with_iran

This is an old revision of the document!


2019/06/14

Various rogue countries have been looking for alternatives to the dollar for a long time, often to evade sanctions. However, according to the IMF, the dollar's share of Official Forex Reserves has remained the same under Trump as it was under Obama, 6.0 - 6.6 Trillion dollars, 62-63% of reserves.

The surplus of diplomats, and lack of top level bankers and finance experts, on the board of INSTEX, shows that INSTEX is more about politics than a serious effort to create a trade mechanism. In fact the dollar has continued to grow in stature.

“There is no alternative to the dollar,” said Mark Blyth, an international political economist at Brown University. “We’re stuck with the dollar, which gives the United States astonishing structural power.”

China has tried to compete, investing a trillion in alternative infrastructure. However its slowdown and repression of free speech, temper the appetite to hold Chairman Mao's money.

“What about China?” Mr. Blyth asked, rattling off possible alternatives to the dollar. “I could go there and disappear. This doesn’t inspire confidence. Once you start that kind of politics, you cannot be serious as a global currency.”

So here come politicans from the Euro zone. Problem, is as was predicted in the book of Daniel, the tribes of Europe have mostly the varnish of unity.

“The problems with the euro are problems with governance,” said Catherine Schenk, an economic historian at the University of Oxford. “It has been deeply flawed from the outset. It doesn’t look like a very safe haven to go to from the U.S. dollar.”

Russia has long been looking for alternatives to the dollar. Their inability to find such alternatives to the dollar, has allowed Trump to apply pressure on Putin and his cronies for their interference in the American election of 2016, which happened, and was known to be happening, by the Obama administration which took no efforts to fortify systems against Russian disruption that was known to the Obama Administration since 2015. In fact, for issues that later contributed to the call to spend $22 million on Mueller investigation, in the middle of supposed Russian vote rigging, Obama, on Oct 18, 2016, flat out denied the possibility of rigging our elections, saying “There's no evidence that that has happened in the past or that there are instances in which that will happen this time.“

Russian Election Interference in 2016 U.S. Election

      • “The White House debated various options to punish Russia, but facing obstacles and potential risks, it ultimately failed to exact a heavy toll on the Kremlin for its election interference.”
      • In early August 2016, “an envelope with extraordinary handling restrictions arrived at the White House. Sent by courier from the CIA, it carried “eyes only” instructions that its contents be shown to just four people: President Barack Obama and three senior aides.”
      • “Inside was an intelligence bombshell, a report drawn from sourcing deep inside the Russian government that detailed Russian President Vladi­mir Putin’s direct involvement in a cyber campaign to disrupt and discredit the U.S. presidential race.”
      • “But it went further. The intelligence captured Putin’s specific instructions on the operation’s audacious objectives — defeat or at least damage the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, and help elect her opponent, Donald Trump.”
      • “At that point, the outlines of the Russian assault on the U.S. election were increasingly apparent. Hackers with ties to Russian intelligence services had been rummaging through Democratic Party computer networks, as well as some Republican systems, for more than a year. In July, the FBI had opened an investigation of contacts between Russian officials and Trump associates. And on July 22, nearly 20,000 emails stolen from the Democratic National Committee were dumped online by WikiLeaks.”
      • The Russian hacking attempts were known by Obama administration since 2015.

Dollar Alternatives

Articles about trying to replace U.S. dollar as reserve currency during Obama presidency

  • Articles during Obama administration about attempts to find alternatives to the dollar as world reserve currency
    • 2010: http://archive.fortune.com/galleries/2010/fortune/1007/gallery.Alternate_Currency.fortune/index.html - The dollar alternatives - The almighty dollar has lost a bit of its power lately, as central bankers diversify to other currencies in their reserves. Here are some of the options – both practical and absurd – to replace the greenback.
    • 2011 - 3 alternatives to the U.S. dollar - Chinese Renminbi (unlikely because of chinese protectiveness of its currency), Euro dollar (not likely because of sovereign debt fears, and volatility), IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) (not likely because it is not issued by a bank).
      • “But it doesn't, because the world - to protect the value of the dollars it holds - lends the US even more money to prevent a default. The inflow of cash to the US also holds the dollar's value up - well beyond its real worth. The US is thus running the greatest Ponzi scheme on earth, by borrowing even more to consume and repay old debts. It will all end when the music stops.”
      • “Put another way, the world is as responsible for letting the US live beyond its means as the US itself.”

Alternatives to the dollar

  • CNBC: This is why dollar alternatives are non starters - By Dr. Michael Ivanovitch - independent analyst focusing on world economy, geopolitics and investment strategy. He served as a senior economist at the OECD in Paris, international economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and taught economics at Columbia Business School.
    • “America's “exorbitant privilege” of being able to pay its bills in the currency it prints at a zero marginal cost has been a matter of great controversy ever since the term was coined in the mid-1960s by the former French President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, who was serving as a young finance minister at that time.”
    • Lots of details about the SDR
    • “No SDR, or any other financial contraption, can beat the liquidity and the formidable global banking infrastructure offered by the U.S. dollar. Not now, and not in the foreseeable future.”
  • Google queries for further research:
    • alternatives to the dollar
    • what is instex
    • instex
editorials/european_politicians_produce_plans_for_a_show_network_for_transactions_to_evade_dollar_sanctions_on_trade_with_iran.1560481550.txt.gz · Last modified: 2019/06/14 07:05 (external edit)